milahan, Author at Green Street https://www.greenstreet.com/author/milahan/ Definitive Leaders in Real Estate Analysis & Research Wed, 10 Sep 2025 17:28:05 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.2 https://www.greenstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/cropped-favicon-32x32.png milahan, Author at Green Street https://www.greenstreet.com/author/milahan/ 32 32 Green Street Celebrates 40th Anniversary and Builds Global Momentum with Strategic Expansions and Acquisitions https://www.greenstreet.com/green-street-celebrates-40th-anniversary-and-builds-global-momentum-with-strategic-expansions-and-acquisitions/ https://www.greenstreet.com/green-street-celebrates-40th-anniversary-and-builds-global-momentum-with-strategic-expansions-and-acquisitions/#respond Wed, 10 Sep 2025 03:44:00 +0000 https://gstreetstage.wpenginepowered.com/?p=14258 Firm now delivers integrated public and private market intelligence across four continents, and expanded sector coverage with the acquisition of College House  NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. – September 10, 2025 – Green Street, the leading provider of trusted commercial real estate (CRE) and infrastructure intelligence, predictive analytics, and unbiased insights, is celebrating its 40th anniversary as […]

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Firm now delivers integrated public and private market intelligence across four continents, and expanded sector coverage with the acquisition of College House 

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. – September 10, 2025 – Green Street, the leading provider of trusted commercial real estate (CRE) and infrastructure intelligence, predictive analytics, and unbiased insights, is celebrating its 40th anniversary as it continues to accelerate global growth. Today, Green Street’s integrated platform serves more than 4,000 companies across North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia, offering the most comprehensive combination of real assets research, infrastructure intelligence, data, analytics, advisory, and news worldwide. 

“For 40 years, our insights have helped shape the decisions of the world’s most influential infrastructure and CRE participants”, said Jeff Stuek Jr., Chief Executive Officer of Green Street. “We’ve built a reputation as the gold standard for commercial real estate intelligence. As we look ahead to the next 40 years, we’re focused on expanding into new markets, acquiring complementary capabilities, and delivering the most forward-looking data and analytics to identify tomorrow’s opportunities. ” 

Acquisitions Continue to Strengthen Global Platform 

Underscoring its commitment to growth and innovation, Green Street has completed seven strategic acquisitions over the past six years, each designed to expand the breadth and depth of its global commercial real estate intelligence platform. From enhancing property-level data and broadening geographic coverage to deepening sector-specific insights, these acquisitions have added meaningful capabilities that strengthen Green Street’s leadership position. The most recent, College House, brings premier student housing data and analytics into the platform—further aligning with the company’s strategy to integrate granular private market data with institutional-level research. Together, these acquisitions accelerate Green Street’s ability to deliver actionable, forward-looking intelligence across more markets, asset classes, and client needs. 

Expanding Reach Across Global Markets  

Today, Green Street’s predictive analytics and market intelligence help organizations make investment decisions in more than 25 countries, reflecting the firm’s relevance and depth.  Recent expansions include:  

  • Australia – Earlier this year, Green Street expanded its newsroom with the launch of Green Street News Australia, covering industrial, office, residential, and retail markets with breaking deal coverage, leasing transactions, and regulatory updates. 
  • Canada – Green Street extended its Canadian market coverage with expanded private and public market data, analytics, and exclusive news. Its Canadian Outlook Report provides a comprehensive view of apartments, industrial, office, and retail sectors. 

Customer Loyalty and Proven Value 

Green Street continues to earn some of the highest levels of client satisfaction in the industry, reflecting strong loyalty and trust across its global customer base. Consistently outperforming peers in independent benchmarks, the company’s results highlight the value of delivering unbiased, predictive, and actionable insights that clients rely on year after year. 

“Our intelligence is forward-looking, rooted in decades of expertise, and validated by a proven track record,” Stuek added. “Whether it’s forecasting, tracking deals, or providing clarity on valuations, our clients rely on us to know what’s coming next.” 

About Green Street 

Founded in 1985, Green Street is the premier provider of actionable commercial real estate and infrastructure research, news, data, analytics, and advisory services. By combining forward-looking market research, proprietary data, predictive analytics, and expert advisory, Green Street empowers market participants across the U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, and Australia to make confident, informed decisions.

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Jeff Stuek https://www.greenstreet.com/jeff-stuek/ https://www.greenstreet.com/jeff-stuek/#respond Tue, 12 Aug 2025 21:54:53 +0000 https://gstreetstage.wpenginepowered.com/?p=1821 Chief Executive Officer Jeff Stuek Jr. is the Chief Executive Officer of Green Street, the preeminent provider of actionable commercial real estate research, news, data, analytics, and advisory services in the U.S. and Europe. The Company’s solutions combine thought-leading research, unique data, and advanced analytics delivered via a modern SaaS platform. As CEO, Jeff builds upon the successful […]

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Chief Executive Officer

Jeff Stuek Jr. is the Chief Executive Officer of Green Street, the preeminent provider of actionable commercial real estate research, news, data, analytics, and advisory services in the U.S. and Europe.

The Company’s solutions combine thought-leading research, unique data, and advanced analytics delivered via a modern SaaS platform. As CEO, Jeff builds upon the successful foundation of Green Street’s 40 years of market leadership by accelerating organic growth, investing in product innovation, and pursuing strategic acquisitions. He brings extensive experience and expertise in key areas such as information services, technology, sales and marketing, mergers and acquisitions, operations and general management. 

Prior to joining Green Street, Jeff most recently was President of North America for TravelClick, an Amadeus company, where he led business operations in the United States and Canada. During his tenure at TravelClick, Jeff also served as Executive Vice President of Corporate Development and Senior Vice President of Global Reservations Solutions. Before that, he held various leadership roles at Dun and Bradstreet, including general management, sales, strategy, mergers and acquisitions, and finance roles. 

Jeff started his career in financial services in investment and corporate banking at Banc of America Securities and Centura Bank. He earned an MBA and a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

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Deceptive Optimism In CRE Office Vacancy Rates https://www.greenstreet.com/deceptive-optimism-in-cre-office-vacancy-rates/ https://www.greenstreet.com/deceptive-optimism-in-cre-office-vacancy-rates/#respond Mon, 15 Apr 2024 21:47:22 +0000 http://wordpress.greenstreetapps.com/?p=12166 Examining how Office occupancy is projected to show different shaped recovery than the optimistic “V-shaped” bounce back. Some market participants are beginning to forecast long-awaited changes in CRE office vacancy rates. But it seems as though certain secondary factors are not being considered with these optimistic projections. New Green Street data shows that without considering […]

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Examining how Office occupancy is projected to show different shaped recovery than the optimistic “V-shaped” bounce back.

Some market participants are beginning to forecast long-awaited changes in CRE office vacancy rates. But it seems as though certain secondary factors are not being considered with these optimistic projections. New Green Street data shows that without considering additional supply and modern corporate policy towards in-office work, these projections seem to be out of touch with the wider scope of the office occupancy dilemma.  

New Green Street data gives the complete picture in our recent report “The Black Hole of Office Occupancy” as we dive into the deeper interconnected issues changing the tone of these overly optimistic projections.  

Now, even based on insights from March of ’23, hope for optimistic forecasts regarding CRE office vacancy rates is understandable given the long and cascading fall of office demand since the pandemic first began in ’19. According to Wall Street Journal, the WFH (work from home)  hybrid culture, coupled with the increasing focus on cost-conscious corporate budgeting, has created a massive dive in square footage with spikes in availability and vacancy – a bad trio for any office occupancy calculation.  

Some market experts believe that these numbers represent a hard bottom to the office occupancy problem that will likely be bouncing back strong with a what Investopedia has called V-Shaped recovery. But this is quite likely an over-optimistic interpretation of the situation. There are two theories to how the market will likely recover – and the optimistic one is far less likely when considering all the factors.  

What factors aren’t being considered in the optimistic “V-shaped” recovery projections are the rates of both new office supply and the in-office job growth. Ignoring these two numbers could give you the expectation that the rapid recovery forecast is reliable. However, the theory fails to consider the dark reality of how deep in the (black) hole CRE office vacancy is currently. 

“The last four years of disruption in the office market have been the worst on record The cumulative amount of office space vacated since ’19 surpasses the amount seen during the dot-com bubble and dwarfs that of the Global Financial Crisis.”  

– Dylan Burzinski, Green Street’s lead office analyst 

Not only that, but the theory also fails to account for compounding factors such as an absorption rate of supply equal to that of 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Given the refocusing of work what the Harvard Business Review defines as the  WFH and hybrid models, such an absorption rate is highly unlikely. Additionally, while the in-office growth rate continues to decline, new office supply has steadily moved in the opposite direction.  

It’s safe to say that instead of the dials shifting in favor of a V-shaped, 5-year recovery (which is already an aggressive assumption given it took the market 11 years to recover from the Global Financial Crisis alone) we could very well be looking at a recovery rate at nearly twice that. 

The deeper data analysis on the situation can be found by requesting the report and further Green Street data in the form below. Be sure not to miss out on the reality of the Black Hole Of Office future and what you can – and should be doing – to adjust your underwriting for more profitably pessimistic purchases.  

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CBRE’s Capital-Markets Chief To Step Down https://www.greenstreet.com/cbre-chief-steps-down/ https://www.greenstreet.com/cbre-chief-steps-down/#respond Tue, 09 Apr 2024 23:02:30 +0000 http://wordpress.greenstreetapps.com/?p=12246 April 9, 2024 “It’s not every day one of the top names in commercial real estate brokerage starts his goodbye tour. But as Real Estate Alert exclusively reports, CBRE’s Chris Ludeman is retiring, effective May 1. Even though the 40-year veteran – the firm’s president of global capital markets – will stay on as a […]

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April 9, 2024

“It’s not every day one of the top names in commercial real estate brokerage starts his goodbye tour. But as Real Estate Alert exclusively reports, CBRE’s Chris Ludeman is retiring, effective May 1. Even though the 40-year veteran – the firm’s president of global capital markets – will stay on as a senior advisor through yearend, it’s a changing of the guard at CBRE.”

Real Estate Alert breaking news report reviewing Luderman’s step down with direct statements from CBRE.

 

CBRE’s Capital-Markets Chief To Step Down

Brokerage veteran Christopher Ludeman, CBRE’s longtime president of global capital markets, is retiring after more than 40 years with the firm.

Ludeman is set to step down from his post on May 1, though he’ll stay on as a senior advisor through the rest of the year.

CBRE has yet to name a successor. Three senior leaders who work under Ludeman — Kevin Aussef, president of U.S. investment sales; James Millon, president of U.S. debt and structured finance; and Leo van den Thillart, global head of investment banking — will report directly to advisory-services chief executive Jack Durburg.

Ludeman joined CBRE as a trainee in 1980, in the period leading up to the savings-and-loan crisis, and progressed through local and regional leadership positions across the U.S., including heading brokerage, transaction management and global corporate services. He took the helm of global capital markets in 2011, in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Throughout his leadership of the capital-markets group, CBRE ranked either first or second in Real Estate Alert’s league table of brokers across property sectors, with a 23.1% weighted average market share of deals valued at $25 million or more. For the past seven years, the firm has topped that overall ranking.

At the start of his career with CBRE, the commercial real estate sector was “more of a cottage industry, a quirky alternative investment,” driven largely by relationships, Ludeman said. But commercial real estate changed as capital allocations increased dramatically over the past two decades and institutional buyers increased investment in the space.

“With institutional capital on the rise, so too did it require higher levels of sophistication in every dimension of the business. … Now, commercial real estate is highly technical, data-driven and consultative, which attracts ever smarter people [working in the brokerage space],” Ludeman said.

Like several brokerages, CBRE also has grown with the marketplace. When Ludeman started at the firm, it was primarily a U.S. player with about 600 staffers in 30 offices. Today, it has 130,000 employees across more than 500 offices in 100-plus countries.

Over the course of Ludeman’s tenure, CBRE built out service lines for each of the individual sectors, lining up pros to lead them and work collaboratively with the firm’s other practices. They include Kelli Carhart (multifamily), Matt Carlson and Patrick Gildea (office), Chris Decoufle (retail), Bill Grice (hotels), Will Pike (net lease) and Chris Riley (industrial).

“The industry is so much better today than it was 40 years ago. The level of both strategic and technical abilities that are required to excel are far above what we had decades ago,” Ludeman said. “I believe our industry will take significant leaps forward, and its best days are ahead. It has been a privilege and an honor to be a participant in the process and watch the evolution of our industry.”

Real Estate Alert is widely recognized as the market’s early warning system for buyers and sellers of major U.S. CRE properties. The newsletter has covered the commercial real estate sector through multiple market booms and crises for more than thirty years. Real Estate Alert’s veteran reporting team closely monitors transaction activity and market trends, enabling us to offer timely insights and actionable intelligence on investment opportunities across asset classes. Newsletter Readers are able to leverage top players’ investment tactics, spot imminent risks and opportunities, and garner a recruitment edge.

Gain first-hand information on behind-the-scenes dealings, securing the competitive advantage you need to detect opportunities.

Real Estate Alert‘s weekly publication breaks the most meaningful stories in the commercial real estate space. 

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Energy In The Economy: Energy Is The Economy https://www.greenstreet.com/energy-in-the-economy-energy-is-the-economy/ https://www.greenstreet.com/energy-in-the-economy-energy-is-the-economy/#respond Mon, 01 Apr 2024 21:19:25 +0000 http://wordpress.greenstreetapps.com/?p=12128 Perspectives on Germany’s nuclear backout and its effects in real estate + larger implications   Energy policy in Germany may be providing insight into the importance of nuclear power, and energy’s effect in real estate in general. New Green Street data delivers insights on Germany’s 2002 commitment to move away from nuclear power and the quick […]

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Perspectives on Germany’s nuclear backout and its effects in real estate + larger implications  

Energy policy in Germany may be providing insight into the importance of nuclear power, and energy’s effect in real estate in general. New Green Street data delivers insights on Germany’s 2002 commitment to move away from nuclear power and the quick – and lasting – effects it has in the market. Further explanation of the reasons for (and issues with) these policies that are considered in Green Street’s forecasts will help illuminate the deeper implications of energy’s effects in real estate. 

As of April 15, 2023 Germany has decommissioned all their nuclear reactors. However, the so-called “green” initiative has not only had questionable effects on their energy production but actual green output as well. Beyond this, it will likely lead to serious market fluctuations in traditional German real estate sectors.  

Even though Europe is generally ahead of the U.S. by a decade when it comes to green energy initiatives, Germany is seeing carbon levels equal to that of 2015 (despite its push towards renewable energy sources). One major contributor to this is while other nations have pushed forward into nuclear energy, like France, Germany has essentially pulled out entirely. Instead, it has heavily invested in renewables such as solar, wind, hydro, and biomass. This, however, seems to have its own set of other challenges.  

According to the World Economic Forum, Germany averaged approximately 40% of its energy coming from renewable resources in 2023 (aside from nuclear power) and has now committed to a goal of 80% by 2030. What isn’t being accounted for in these new energy policies, however, is the residual load leftover after renewable sources and the unreliable fluctuations in energy production from renewable energy.  

Another factor that has been overlooked is the effect these energy sources have in real estate, not only the market but in natural land as well. For example, to match France’s current nuclear energy output in TWh output alone, Germany would need 40-120X the land area. This seems to be a bit of a step backwards in terms of the EU’s public stance on returning land to the environment. This new anti-nuclear energy policy places Germany at a serious handicap for industrial production, but also places them at a serious deficit of space and resources, often-unconsidered factors in energy’s effect in real estate. 

In contrast to Germany, France has continued to increase its investment in nuclear energy and has seen continued returns as it optimizes its power grid and maximizes energy production with minimal space. Germany’s backout will likely have compounded effects in real estate not only in the industrial sector, but the computing, residential, and raw land sectors as well. In general, the secondary effects of Germany’s policies have questionable ESG implications that seem to have been overlooked. ESG is a term used as an alternative for sustainability and socially responsible investing – aka: the consideration of environmental, social, and governance factors. Many brands even have a unique position on how to consider ESG factors in investment decisions. 

What seems to be missed here in both Germany’s energy policies and economists’ forecasts is that even though Germany has made a grand gesture in terms of nuclear safety, it hamstrings the country by creating a coal dependency to make up for the deficit while severely limiting their ability to expand industrially. Especially in the AI era where computing is expected to see massive growth, the need for nuclear-powered data centres is responding in suit – and the nation has made it very difficult to keep up. Coal and most other energy sources lose to nuclear in energy production as well as spatial density and cost-effectiveness. These factors contribute to Green Street’s forecasts for Germany’s traditional real estate in the near future. Given the spatial limitations and hampered industrial capabilities, Green Street’s already conservative stance on German real estate sectors will take a definitive shift if energy policies are not changed quickly. But it is safe to assume adjustments in rent forecasts from further exclusive insights. After all:  

“Energy is not an input into the economy, IT IS THE ECONOMY. Humanity organizes its economic activities to ensure a steady growth in the extraction and exploitation of primary energy because energy is life, standards of living are defined by how much energy is available to be exploited, and all humans everywhere are perpetually seeking a higher standard of living.” – Doomberg 

So then, what is likely to come of living standards, availability, and real estate valuation given the above energy policies? Click below for a sample report of Green Street’s deeper insights on the implications of each country’s commitment. You can also sign up for the upcoming ESG Webinar on “Recalibrating and Quantifying the “E” Impact on CRE” to learn more about the different factors considered in Green Street forecasting. It’s time we all start to consider shifting nuclear policies on a deeper level and what serious effects energy has in real estate.

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Deep Dive into Local Data Company: 2023 UK Retail and Leisure Trends Analysis https://www.greenstreet.com/deep-dive-into-local-data-company-2023-uk-retail-and-leisure-trends-analysis/ https://www.greenstreet.com/deep-dive-into-local-data-company-2023-uk-retail-and-leisure-trends-analysis/#respond Thu, 21 Mar 2024 10:00:44 +0000 http://wordpress.greenstreetapps.com/?p=12100 New insights on the UK retail and leisure market revealed a boom in commercial real estate activity over 2023. The latest report by the Local Data Company (LDC) and Green Street, covering key developments across the entire Great Britain retail and leisure market over 2023, shows a spike in numbers of both closures and openings, […]

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New insights on the UK retail and leisure market revealed a boom in commercial real estate activity over 2023.

The latest report by the Local Data Company (LDC) and Green Street, covering key developments across the entire Great Britain retail and leisure market over 2023, shows a spike in numbers of both closures and openings, representing significant churn.

Rises in interest rates and operational costs compounded the challenges for GB retailers, leading to a year-on-year increase in closures of 14% between 2022 and 2023. However, closures were somewhat tempered by a 5% rise in openings during the same period, indicating a much more resilient and adaptable market than has been seen in previous years. Innovative changes of use and retail-to-residential conversions have become increasingly attractive, offering an economically viable option to address vacancies, align locations with current demand and revitalise town centres.

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Retail parks were a particular area of strength, continuing the positive trajectory they have seen in recent years. With a net increase in units of 0.4% over 2023, they were the only location type to see a positive overall change. Demand remained high for retail park units, driving a 1.4% year-on-year decrease in vacancy rate. Further decreases are expected as retailers continue to expand their out-of-town offer, with investors in this space projected to see some rental growth.

While competition from out-of-town retail drove a 1.3% decrease in units for shopping centres, vacancy did improve by 0.5%, reflecting continued efforts to attract occupiers following the pandemic as well as convert long term vacant space into other uses. Analysis by Green Street reveals that strong, experience-led tenant mix is the key to thriving shopping centres; accordingly, for many retailers in this sector, the focus has been on creating immersive in-store experiences and prioritising highly visible prime locations.

Despite the economic headwinds seen over 2023, the latest data indicates a notable level of resilience across GB retail and leisure. While inflation and interest rates ease, making space for growth, uncertainty is still present in the form of anticipated economic and political change. Green Street and LDC anticipate that flexibility and careful strategy will enable agile retailers and developers to navigate any upcoming challenges and identify opportunities.

The full report includes further detail on:

  • Multiple vs independent performance
  • Growing and declining retail and leisure categories
  • Central London’s office hotspots
  • Long-term vacancy rates
  • Reoccupation of ex-Arcadia sites and department stores
  • The potential for repurposing and repositioning retail assets, including via retail-to-residential conversion

A Trusted Voice in the Industry

The Local Data Company provides market participants with exclusive data and insights to support the following core client groups:

  • Retail Occupiers- portfolio optimisation, expansion strategy, competitor tracking, market and sector tracking, and due diligence for M&A
  • The Property Sector- tenant strategy, due diligence, asset acquisition, radius analysis of health, research on reoccupation activity, and evidence for business rates reform
  • The Public Sector- strategic town planning, government funding applications, investment impact, and economic development projects.

LDC’s Quarterly GB Vacancy Monitor featured in recent React News article: Retail Vacancies Flatline As High Street Struggles Temper Recovery

PwC recently launched its latest figures for Store Openings and Closures in 2023 across Great Britain using research undertaken by Local Data Company.

The LDC and Green Street Partnership

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The Local Data Company is now joined with Green Street to provide in-depth market analysis across the U.K. retail sector. With LDC’s granular, location specific analysis and Green Street’s forward looking thought leadership, the union will continue to provide market participants with timely and expanded insights.

Recent reports that incorporate both Green Street and LDC data:

20 November 2023

Green Street takes a closer look at the London Retail sector using data from Local Data Company and sheds light on investor demand and real estate values. Whilst the holistic takeaway for London’s high-street retail is negative, granular analysis of two distinct portfolios suggests the negative read across is less severe than at first blush.

  • U.K. Retail Insights: Mind the Vacancy Gap

4 February 2024

Spot vacancy is an important determinant of future cashflow resilience. Most European PropCos only report EPRA vacancy rates – effectively a ‘financial’ gauge of vacancy. LDC records physical vacancy as well as tenant categories. Granular analysis of this data provides insight into how the EPRA vacancy rate can be widely different to physical vacancy rates and highly misleading in times of cyclical stress in the industry.

  • Office Insights – Central London: Holding Tight

20 December 2023

Green Street uses LDC’s rent and vacancy data to analyze both the investment and occupational markets. This provides insight into London’s total return outlook with prime submarket snapshots.

  • Retail Insights: Grocery Stores: An Attractive Opportunity

23 November 2023

U.K. grocery has three categories: supermarkets (~55% of the stock), discounters (~25%) and convenience (~20%). Each grocery segment differs in terms of (i) location, (ii) size, (iii) sales productivity and (iv) profitability. Green Street analyzes private market portfolio quality based on LDC’s Supermarket Index.

This year, Green Street’s unique data assets and LDC’s rich retail intelligence will be integrated yet more closely, resulting in an enriched joint offering that provides unmatched value and depth of insight. John Guilfoy, Chief Product Officer at Green Street, outlines what clients can expect in 2024.

“We’re excited to relaunch the online platform, with more predictive analytics— making the data even more applicable and supportive to a wider range of use cases. These enhancements will empower clients to gain maximum value from our products and the unique thought leadership and differentiated insights we bring to this industry.”

As with all our product releases, these LDC enhancements have been shaped with client feedback at the forefront, ensuring that we meet the diverse needs of our users. Our development process takes the wide range of use cases for our data into careful consideration to deliver high value for all.

“We interviewed a host of clients and have worked diligently to focus enhancements around the most key parts of the products, bringing the best of LDC and Green Street together to deliver unparalleled analytics on the current and future UK retail market.”

The plans for our new platform include enhanced health indices, forecasting, competitor analysis, retailer health scores, portfolio analysis, and filtering, resulting in a suite of comprehensive intelligence tailor-made for investors and retailers.

Check out LDC’s full offerings and more insights: https://www.localdatacompany.com/

 

Green Street UK is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 482269). Our global organization maintains information barriers to ensure the independence of and distinction between our non-regulated and regulated businesses.  Local Data Company is not a regulated Green Street business unit.

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Market Opportunities Amidst Revised Outlooks https://www.greenstreet.com/market-opportunities-amidst-revised-outlooks/ https://www.greenstreet.com/market-opportunities-amidst-revised-outlooks/#respond Thu, 07 Mar 2024 19:43:23 +0000 http://wordpress.greenstreetapps.com/?p=12067 Off the back of the recently published 2024 U.S. Sector Outlook Reports, Green Street hosted a discussion for those wanting to navigate U.S. real estate markets and make optimal investment decisions ahead. Senior analysts, Rob Filley and Ryan Miller, identified opportunities on the horizon for several commercial property sectors at the market level.   The two […]

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Off the back of the recently published 2024 U.S. Sector Outlook Reports, Green Street hosted a discussion for those wanting to navigate U.S. real estate markets and make optimal investment decisions ahead. Senior analysts, Rob Filley and Ryan Miller, identified opportunities on the horizon for several commercial property sectors at the market level.  

The two analysts suggested stabilization moving forward for asset values. However, they mentioned there will likely be a couple more quarters of downward revisions to appraisal-based indices like the Nareit MPI. Traditional sector values – Apartments, Industrial, Office and Strip Centers – are down about 21% in aggregate pricing, which the two prefaced as a sign for what’s to come.  

According to Green Street, commercial real estate is roughly fairly valued today. Ryan walked through the methodology behind this conclusion by expanding on expected returns relative to their investment alternatives. He also analyzed expected returns to provide insight on Green Street’s proprietary sector allocation changes specifically for the traditional sectors. 

Rob provided valuable insights on each sector and outlined which markets have fared better or worse than anticipated. In the apartment sector, Chicago, Orange County, and Pittsburgh are each leaders in the top 50 markets due to the strength in fundamentals during 2023. For the office sector, Palm Beach and Miami are poised for near-term growth and high risk-adjusted returns. With lowering cap rates and positive long-term growth, Miami and Los Angeles are expected to thrive amongst the top 50 industrial markets. Salt Lake City strip centers have experienced declining vacancy rates at a much faster rate than most and will continue to benefit from more declines over the next few years. 

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The two analysts also dove into a market allocation analysis of non-traditional sectors. With different markets outperforming across the board, there was an almost an equal number of upgrades and downgrades for Self-Storage, Senior Housing, and Single-Family Rental sectors  in 2023. 

Watch the full webinar 2024 Identifying CRE Opportunities: A Market-Level Analysis to get more proprietary analytics for specific markets in each sector. 

 

To keep up with Green Street’s differentiated perspective and receive notifications for future posts, opt-in for insights.

Hungry for more Green Street webinar insights? Click here to view our on-demand replay library.

Want to learn how you can incorporate Green Street’s insightful analyst intelligence like this and sector specific research in your investment strategy? Speak with a member of our team today.

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The Current State of Play and Key Performers in Pan-European Private Markets https://www.greenstreet.com/the-current-state-of-play-and-key-performers-in-pan-european-private-markets/ https://www.greenstreet.com/the-current-state-of-play-and-key-performers-in-pan-european-private-markets/#respond Thu, 07 Mar 2024 00:39:35 +0000 http://wordpress.greenstreetapps.com/?p=12056 Off the back of the recently published 2024 Pan-European Sector Outlook Reports, Green Street hosted a discussion for those wanting to effectively navigate European real estate markets and capitalize on the best opportunities ahead. Marie Dormeuil, Head of European Market Analytics, opined on changes on the horizon for core commercial property sectors at the market […]

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Off the back of the recently published 2024 Pan-European Sector Outlook Reports, Green Street hosted a discussion for those wanting to effectively navigate European real estate markets and capitalize on the best opportunities ahead.

Marie Dormeuil, Head of European Market Analytics, opined on changes on the horizon for core commercial property sectors at the market level. She provided valuable insights on each sector independently and then explained how they correlate to each other when observing fundamentals expectations, valuation, pricing, and returns.

Key Takeaways

M-RevPAM growth – a Green Street proprietary metric that combines effective market rent and occupancy –  was the go-to measure  used by Green Street’s research team to assess the estimates from 2023 and review which sectors have fared better or fared worse than anticipated across the four core sectors.

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The residential sector saw a continuous and stellar growth in 2023 as demand continued to outstrip supply.  For industrial, rent growth continued its support trajectory as demand remained stronger than our original underwritings despite increases in vacancies. The retail sector, after seven years of tepid growth and downward revisions, has gone through a reset phase. Thus, translating to a better starting position moving forward through 2024. Office is the only sector that was further revised down, mostly due to further rental growth erosion and prevalent vacancies.

Upon analyzing the factors behind these changes, Marie outlined the expectations for 2024 by geography and sector.

According to Marie, Gothenburg and Stockholm are poised to outperform in three out of the four core sectors in 2024. Conversely, Manchester and Madrid are expected to underperform amongst the group.

Watch the full webinar Pan-European Private Markets: Take Your Pick to get a  deep dive and proprietary analytics for specific markets in each sector.

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Hungry for more Green Street webinar insights? Click here to view our on-demand replay library.

Want to learn how you can incorporate Green Street’s insightful analyst intelligence like this and sector specific research in your investment strategy? Speak with a member of our team today.

 

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Annual Commercial Real Estate Year in Review https://www.greenstreet.com/annual-commercial-real-estate-year-in-review/ https://www.greenstreet.com/annual-commercial-real-estate-year-in-review/#respond Tue, 19 Dec 2023 01:36:49 +0000 http://wordpress.greenstreetapps.com/?p=11775 It’s been an eventful year for CRE players. Downward pressure on prices among many other micro factors all sit against an economic backdrop filled with uncertainty. To help you navigate this evolving market environment and capitalize on opportunities, please enjoy our annual Green Street Year in Review, which includes valuable forward-looking insight from Director of […]

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It’s been an eventful year for CRE players. Downward pressure on prices among many other micro factors all sit against an economic backdrop filled with uncertainty. To help you navigate this evolving market environment and capitalize on opportunities, please enjoy our annual Green Street Year in Review, which includes valuable forward-looking insight from Director of Research Cedrik Lachance. We also recap our must-read reports and exclusive insights across key topical themes, plus new tools and more from 2023 that have provided essential support to our clients throughout a year igniting many more questions than answers. Connect with us so we can discuss how Green Street can similarly support you next year and beyond.

Topical Themes, Reports & Sample Reports

CRE Values: Property pricing down 22% from March ’22 peak; examine the fundamental drivers of valuation and their effect on share prices, sector performances, transaction volumes and more.

  • Heard on the Beach: A Theory of Everything (June): As is the case across the 24/7 world of investment punditry, real estate talking heads are easily distracted by the shiny object du jour. It shouldn’t be so difficult, however, as there are only four primary drivers of return differentials in the arena, and it is not difficult to assess the impact each is having on a regular basis. 
  • Property Insights: Quarterly Transaction Trends (November): CRE transaction volume is a critical indicator of market health. Green Street’s Sales Comps database provides actionable insight on deals of $5M and up. 3Q23 sales volume was down ~50% year-over-year and ~15% sequentially. Spiking interest rates in 3Q negatively impacted buyer appetite. Access the full report.
  • Real-Time U.S. & Pan-Euro Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI): Green Street’s Commercial Property Price Index is a time series of unleveraged U.S. commercial property values that captures the prices at which commercial real estate transactions are currently being negotiated and contracted.

Spike in Real Rates: A march higher in interest rates has made ’23 feel like a bad rerun of the ’22 movie; observe lending market components and fluctuations which inevitably correlate to property valuation and risk.

  • Heard on the Beach: To Survive Till ’25, Don’t Snore in ’24 (November): Like all asset classes, CRE gets pushed and pulled by the gyrations of interest rates, but it is the driver of the latter that most determines the fate of the former.
  • Heard on the Beach: The Spread Effect (June): The information emanating from the bond market provides valuable insight into the forces influencing property valuations. One major driver – the duration effect – was in full display throughout 2022 given the rise in real rates. However, an equally important signal is how fixed income investors are perceiving risk via credit spreads.

ESG: Factoring “E” into CRE underwriting is an increasingly important valuation input; analyze key “E” metrics at the market and sector levels to interpret “E” impacts on long-term growth, cap-ex, and insurance costs.

  • Property Insights: Your “E” Sensitivity Training (February): Widely different regulations and emission intensities are included when factoring “E” impact in underwriting. Sector-level differences matter at least twice as much as intra-sector differences. Learn more in this blog post.
  • Heard on the Beach: A Pinch of Green (April): It’s hard to ignore the drumbeat of nearly every Western government’s march to a carbon neutral world. Landlords are facing increasingly stringent demands to decarbonize and modernize buildings or face monetary penalties and/or obsolescence. Real estate investors should strive to price current and future decarbonization costs and therefore have a view on the “E” in “ESG”. 

Debt Markets: The flow of debt to CRE has and will likely remain depressed in the near-term; assess how lending standards, rising costs, loan defaults, and banking struggles cause difficulties for near-term maturities and refinancing.

  • Property Insights: Wall of Worry (July): The ebb and flow of credit availability can have important ramifications for real estate prices. In general, when credit is created, transaction activity increases, pushing up prices and making borrowers look more creditworthy. Less favorable loan terms could result in owners needing to shore up additional equity to renew maturing loans and a failure to do so could result in forced sales, leading to further declines in real estate prices. 
  • Heard on the Thames – Everybody Calm Down (September): A well-functioning commercial real estate market that enjoys good price discovery relies on readily available debt that can seamlessly refinance maturing loans while partly funding new acquisitions and developments. When credit flows pull back, transaction volumes stall, and prices usually wobble. Click here to download more Heard on the Thames insights.
  • Debt Insight: Tracking Real Estate Debt (October): The flow of debt to CRE is depressed relative to history. Higher Treasury rates causing pain; CRE debt spreads have risen more than corporates. The appetite to borrow and lend has slowed dramatically among all participants.

CRE Fundamentals: M-RevPAF growth still solid, but it’s decelerating somewhat faster than expected; evaluate how developments in operating fundamentals translate to declines in property prices, transaction activity, and overall fiscal health.

  • U.S. Commercial Property Outlook (December): The rise in 10-year Treasury yields from the high-3% range this summer to a peak of 5% in mid-October upended the commercial real estate transaction market and caused widespread declines in pricing. Property prices have fallen 6% over the past three months and 22% from their March ’22 peak. 
  • Pan-European Commercial Property Outlook (October): Pan-European CRE prices (B/B+ quality) decreased by ~8% YTD; c.3% in the past six months. Retail and office prices hit hardest; residential and industrial yield expansion offset by growing cashflows. Property prices could fall ~10% by the summer of ’24; would then be down 1/3rd since May-22 peak.
  • Property Insights: Fiscal Friends and Foes (November): Prospective changes to tax burdens imposed on residents and landlords across metros can have an important impact on future total returns from CRE investing. Quantifying the likelihood of tax policy changes and pricing it into real estate requires art and science yet can also prove an important driver of future returns.

Sector Themes: Current topics of interest at the sector-level; rising growth forecasts, market values relative to costs, risk-adjusted expected returns, portfolio assessments, demand across different markets, and the key factors of cap-ex.

  • Data Center Insights: Artificial Intelligence: Buy the Hype or Sell the Data Center Sector? (July): Is the hype real? Or are we in for a letdown like prior emerging tech that failed to meet expectations ranging from 5G to the Internet of Things to the Metaverse?
  • Euro Residential Insights: Replacement Cost ≈ Redundant Comps (March): Replacement cost analysis is a commonly used tool in the real estate investment world. However, every analytical framework has its drawbacks and the same is true with replacement cost.
  • Industrial Insights: Outdoor Storage: A Beautiful Ugly Duckling (April): Industrial outdoor storage (“IOS”) is a niche commercial property type that has grown in popularity among institutions in recent years amid the broader industrial boom. Investor demand for IOS has been buoyed by strong recent operating results, favorable long-term supply demand dynamics, and a de minimis cap-ex burden. 
  • Central London Retail Insights: A Forensic Investigation (November): Whilst the holistic takeaway for London’s high-street retail is negative, granular analysis – using data from Local Data Company (LDC; a recently acquired and now Green Street-owned U.K. retail analytics company) – of two distinct portfolios suggests the negative read across is less severe than at first blush. 
  • Euro Office Insights: Licking Its Wounds (June): Three years after the onset of the global pandemic, European office market fundamentals have seemingly held up relatively well, and certainly better than detractors were projecting. Yet, as employers attempt to bring employees back to the office with mixed success, it has become clear in the data that hybrid work has dented office demand over the past few years.  
  • Self-Storage Insights: Rolling Up the Doors on Cap-Ex (October): Green Street’s inaugural deep-dive into self-storage cap-ex sheds light as public and private market data on the topic is lacking. Self-storage is expected to deliver slightly below-avg. returns in the private market.

Coverage Expansion

  • U.S. Senior Housing Sector: Senior Housing data and analytics across the top 50 U.S. markets added to Market Data
  • REIT Initiations: U.S.: EPRT, BNL, DOC, IVT, LXP, IRT; Euro: CTP, LXI, SUPR, AT1, SAGA, PNDX
  • Expanded Research Through New Reports: Commercial Property Monthly (global), Euro Heard on the Thames, and Euro Model Portfolio

Enriched Market Data Solution 

  • European Market Forecasts Scenarios: Access five-year forecasts for operating fundamentals and valuation metrics
  • U.S. Effective Rent Growth & Occupancy: Access historical time series data for U.S. market-level effective rent growth and occupancy
  • U.S. Rent Comps: Leverage a granular, asset-level view of effective rents across four sectors

Data Delivery Services

  • Detailed NAV Models: Provide a deeper view into the valuation drivers of our covered U.S. and European public companies
  • Snowflake: Seamlessly query on our data or build connections in your company’s preferred integrations
  • Excel Add-In: New user interface with streamlined authentication allows you to power your models with real-time insights

Other Product Enhancements

  • “E” Metrics: “E” Sector Sensitivity, potential costs, and impact – helping capital allocators frame risks and opportunities from a green perspective
  • U.S AVM 2.0: Self-select sales comparables and customize weights of three valuation approaches across 384 U.S metros
  • Green Street Sales Comps in React News: Sales Comps and transaction data added to React News articles

Spotlight on Our Webinar Series Favorites

U.S. Webinars

  • Challenges Ahead as ’24 Looms: Discussion across Residential, Industrial, Office, Data Center, Self-Storage, and Retail with our Research Sector Heads to hear our views on the outlook for each.
  • Identifying CRE Opportunities: A Market-Level Analysis: Managing Directors Joi Mar and Seth Laughlin discuss key markets and the data/analytics you need to optimize investment decisions in this dynamic macro environment.
  • The Upside of “E”-Valuating Portfolios Through an Environmental Lens: Global attention from regulators and investors on “E” is rapidly accelerating. Environmental issues in CRE, particularly as they relate to energy and emissions, are complex and opaque. Learn how Green Street is incorporating “E” into our property underwriting.

Pan-European Webinars

  • U.K. Retail Webinar: A Forensic Approach: Green Street and newly acquired Local Data Company (LDC) – the UK’s most accurate retail location insight provider – team up to discuss in-depth market analysis.
  • Pan-European Outlook: Patience is a Virtue: Green Street’s Research Sector Heads discuss opportunities and confront challenges facing Pan-Euro property sectors as we wrap up ‘23 and anticipate what’s likely in store for pricing in early ’24.
  • Pan-European Market Data: Spotting the Right Opportunities: Green Street’s European Market Data and Deals solution provides proprietary analytics and actionable intelligence to help private and public CRE investors make better investment and portfolio management decisions, mitigate risk, and raise capital more effectively.

Voice of the Green Street Customer in 2023

“The combination of Green Street’s high-quality sector and market analysis, market rankings, and weekly dose of Real Estate Alert is unique and unbeatable. They allow us to remain informed on the state of the market/sector and provide good insights into the future direction of both.” – Private Equity CIO

“Green Street helps our business decision-making strategy and success by providing relative data and analysis in real-time that is sector-specific to our business. We use Green Street to benchmark our portfolios, evaluate potential new markets, and stay apprised of macro developments in the real estate industry.” – Real Estate Company CEO

“Hands down, Green Street has the best data and analysts of any CRE research firm. Green Street’s reputation is extensive and unrivaled. Their credibility is second to none.” – Real Estate Company Director & Board Member

“Green Street’s research platform provides a level of consolidated data and analysis that’s just not available elsewhere. The services and resources you’ll receive as a result are markedly superior to, and more detailed than, those provided by other market competitors.” – Real Estate Company CEO

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