Vacancy Rate %:

From 2015 through to 2019, all five streets maintained low vacancy rates, typically below 10%. Long Acre and Carnaby Street even achieved periods of zero vacancies during some years, indicating their desirability and strong retail performance.

However, post-2019 brought increasing volatility, particularly post-pandemic when the impact rippled through the retail sector nationwide, and London’s shopping streets were no exception.

• Long Acre emerged as the most volatile, with vacancies soaring to over 18% between 2022 and 2024. However, in 2025 the vacancy rate on the street saw a steep drop back to levels not seen since 2018, suggesting a positive turnaround and return to vibrancy for the area.

• King’s Road also experienced a sharp recovery in 2025, ending the decade with one of the steepest drops in vacancy. With rental demand now back at pre-pandemic levels, the area has reaffirmed its status as a high-demand destination.

• Marylebone High Street maintained relative stability, with the lowest and most consistent vacancy levels over the period analysed, with vacancy rates never reaching over 10%, even during the pandemic years, indicating a strong and established retail offering.

• Regent Street saw a more challenging trajectory. Vacancy rates nearly doubled between 2020 and 2021, peaking in 2023. Although there’s been improvement, the street has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic strength.

• Carnaby Street also saw a similar trend, with vacancies peaking in 2021. However, the recovery of the street has been volatile in recent years with noticeable peaks and troughs.

Shifts in Retail Mix:

Beyond vacancies, another key trend over the past ten years is the transformation of the retail mix on these high streets — a reflection of shifting consumer preferences.

• Comparison retail has declined significantly on the majority of the streets, with Long Acre seeing the largest decline of nearly 20% during the last 10 years. A decline in Comparison offering is a trend echoed across GB in key shopping areas, with retailers replaced by an increased leisure and service focussed offering.

• Marylebone High Street stood out as the only location to grow its Comparison offering, with a 10% increase, counterbalancing a notable decline in its Convenience and Service categories.

• Leisure and Service have seen increases across many of these streets, with Long Acre again seeing the largest shifts, indicating a strategic shift in focus in this area over time. This shift indicates a broader reorientation toward experiential and lifestyle-driven businesses, aligning with the ever-evolving urban consumer.

London’s retail landscape is transforming, not just in response to economic cycles, but also due to a structural shift in consumer priorities. Streets that strategically adapt their tenant mix over time to reflect this will be better positioned to maintain lower vacancy rates and thrive in the next retail era.

Green Street’s Retail Analytics Pro unlocks new possibilities for investors, occupiers, and public sector stakeholders, supporting data-driven decisions that enhance retail performance and local regeneration. By combining advanced data science with extensive industry expertise, Green Street continues to set new standards for real estate insights, empowering stakeholders to make smarter, more informed decisions.

Click here to learn more about Green Street’s new
Retail Analytics Pro

The post Retail in Motion: How London’s Iconic Shopping Streets Are Evolving appeared first on Green Street.

At Green Street, our granular data allows for detailed analysis at the Local Authority and High Street level, identifying exactly where HSRAs could have the most transformative effect. For investors, local planners, and landlords alike, this insight offers a powerful lens to understand risk, opportunity and potential value creation. 

For landlords and investors, this represents more than just a policy change – it’s a shift towards more proactive asset management. Rather than allowing high street properties to remain idle and lose both value and relevance, the HSRA scheme enables councils to reintroduce these spaces to the market through vibrant town centres and reduced retail voids, while unlocking previously untapped value. 

From an investment standpoint, vacant properties can quickly shift from being assets to becoming liabilities. Beyond the loss of rental income, empty units can negatively impact neighbouring properties, reduce footfall, and create a sense of decline in an area. The HSRA scheme offers a compelling solution – by reactivating long-vacant space, landlords may see not only financial returns but also reputational and community value. 

The scheme has been adopted by 11 councils to date, but as more councils gain confidence and join in, HSRAs may become a key lever in boosting town centre resilience. 

Percentage of Local Authorities within GB Average Persistent Vacancy Rate %:

Green Street is uniquely positioned to help stakeholders understand where HSRAs might have the greatest impact. Across Great Britain, an average of 9.6% of retail units qualifying for the scheme, having been persistently vacant for over a year. But a regional breakdown reveals striking variation in potential uptake. 

For example, 100% of Local Authorities in the North East have a higher-than-average proportion of qualifying units – suggesting the scheme could make a significant difference in these areas. By contrast, in Greater London, only 3% of Local Authorities exceed the 9.6% threshold, highlighting the more contained nature of persistent vacancies in the capital. 

As the retail landscape continues to evolve, initiatives like HSRAs – and the data to support their implementation – are set to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the high street. 

Green Street’s Retail Analytics Pro unlocks new possibilities for investors, occupiers, and public sector stakeholders, supporting data-driven decisions that enhance retail performance and local regeneration. By combining advanced data science with extensive industry expertise, Green Street continues to set new standards for real estate insights, empowering stakeholders to make smarter, more informed decisions.

Click here to learn more about Green Street’s new
Retail Analytics Pro

The post High Street Rental Auctions: A new Lever for Revitalising Town Centres appeared first on Green Street.

Part of the challenge in analysing retail real estate is murky occupier metrics resulting in a lack of clarity as to how assets are actually performing. Green Street’s newly enhanced Health Index places the spotlight directly on factors that contribute to an asset’s income potential, lifting the fog to showcase retail occupier data in a different light. The Health Index is a proprietary quantitative evaluation of asset health and attractiveness, focussed on occupier fundamentals such as vacancy, demographics, competition, anchor store presence, and consumer dwell time. The objective is to capture the key benefits both retailers and centre landlords enjoy at a physical location, collectively assessing the strength, resilience, and revenue generating abilities of the asset in question.

High Health Index rankings indicate where a retailer should be able to generate the highest revenues and where a landlord should be able to maximise income potential.

It also reflects the potential resilience of an asset in the case of an economic downturn, given the strength of its underlying fundamentals. Moreover, a historic time series of health index rankings detail the performance trajectory – and asset management effectiveness – of any specific asset.  

What is the Health Index? 

The Health Index ranks approximately 3,200 retail locations across the U.K., evaluating each asset on ten factors (Exhibit 1) to produce a normalised z-score out of 100. The ranking compares each asset’s performance within its sub-asset class (shopping centres, retail parks, high streets, outlet centres). In addition, it enables comparability between property sub-asset types, with a final score out of 100 for all ~3,200 assets. Weightings were established through numerous sources, including discussions with retail owners and managers during our recently completed ~150 U.K. retail asset tours. Moreover, actual retailer sales data were used to corroborate the rankings output of the index.

How to Interpret the Health Index 

The Green Street principle “to be approximately correct, than precisely wrong” is central to interpreting the Health Index. The Health Index provides a clear assessment of the health and attractiveness of each asset both within and across sub-asset classes, but interpreting the rankings requires an understanding of the makeup of the final score – with specifics available on the Retail Pro platform. For those looking within a single category, one of the best ways to use the index is to analyse the rankings within that sub-asset category.

Assets can be generally arranged into four possible groups, based on scoring for Asset-level and Macro factors:

1. Strong Macro, Strong Asset-level – strong underlying demographic fundamentals and well managed
2. Weak Macro, Strong Asset-level – well managed asset despite having weaker underlying demographics.
3. Strong Macro, Weak Asset-level – strong underlying demographic fundamentals but sub-optimal management.
4. Weak Macro, Weak Asset-level – sub-optimal management and weak demographic fundamentals.

If an asset scores poorly due to asset-level factors, despite having strong macro factors, this could suggest significant asset-management opportunities to maximise rental income potential, generating sizeable risk-adjusted unlevered returns.

Health Index Results

The top U.K. assets within each sub-asset class are catchment-dominant destination centres and have a nationwide reach, with far larger catchment populations than their peers. Low overall as well as persistent vacancy rates suggest rental tension is likely prevalent at these assets – boding well for income growth prospects and investment liquidity. Shopping centres dominate the top 20 U.K. assets with eleven entries – characterised either as city-centre hubs or out-of-town destinations. Meanwhile, five central London high streets are within the top 20, reflecting their prime locations, unmatched foot traffic, and a concentration of flagship stores that attract international tourists and affluent locals alike. Retail parks (two of the top 20) benefit a highly functional operating model, with two-thirds of the ~1,400 U.K. retail parks having zero vacancy.

The Health Index provides ample firepower to embark on several research projects going forward, focusing on a variety of topics, some of which will be explored by Green Street’s research team in due course. These will include (i) outlining index score differences across the retail REIT portfolios under coverage in the U.K., (ii) identifying individual assets that punch above their Health Index score and what lessons can be learned from owners’ asset management initiatives, and (iii) highlighting over-retailed locations that investors would be best to avoid. In the meantime, investors can use the Health Index and the detailed information on the Retail Pro platform to deepen their analysis of assets and markets and help identify properties with the greatest potential for long-term value creation.

Learn more about Green Street’s new Retail Analytics Pro

The post U.K. Retail Analytics Pro Health Index 101 appeared first on Green Street.

So, what knowledge can be garnered regarding the Pan-European Office market in the latest round of results, for the period to 30th June, from office-focused companies under Green Street’s research coverage in Europe?   

Operational Strength Nearly Everywhere 

To the more casual observer, perhaps the most notable and Office-narrative-busting observation from Europe’s office REITs is the continuing strength of rental growth in REIT portfolios – averaging around 5% and comfortably positive in all ten countries material to recent disclosures. True, there are some pockets of weakness and some over-renting after the storm-force tailwind of inflation-indexed rents, but REIT portfolios on the whole reflect better-than-average asset quality and location, which helps explain the robust picture overall. 

Irrespective of a range of performance within Europe, however, transatlantic comparisons make for interesting reading. Owners of similarly good quality REIT portfolios in the U.S. may scarcely believe the income growth and occupancy numbers their European brethren have been enjoying this year, as illustrated in the chart below. The reasons for such disparity are too many to interrogate in this article, but tight supply and high barriers to new development in many of western Europe’s central business districts (where much of REIT-owned stock lies) have certainly been key to mitigating the worst post-pandemic impacts on demand for office space. 

* Asset-weighted average of 16 Pan-European companies and 17 U.S. companies, office asset only, where data available. Income measures are same-store NOI for U.S. and like-for-like GRI for Europe, i.e. not perfectly comparable, but illustrative.  

Valuations and Investment Market – In Sight of the Trough 

In common with many market investors, a range of REIT management teams have been cautiously articulating the view that office valuations are bottoming out. Third party valuations at 30th June would appear to vindicate such a view, with reported value changes since 31st December generally coalescing close to zero (on either side), with the aforementioned rent growth tending to offset modest yield expansion. Of course, REITs are operating in the same, volume-limited investment market as everyone else and are keen for better liquidity to return, but glimmers of light are certainly available in REIT commentary for those looking for it. 

A Window into Flex 

The public market has often been a great source of information for emerging ‘niche’ segments of European commercial real estate (think self-storage, student housing etc). Flex office is the latest example. In London, GPE’s 2Q reporting of seven fully managed flex leases signed at £210/s.f. (including two renewals in the West End with 30% uplifts to £249/s.f.) is an interesting datapoint for anyone wrestling with the sustainability of 50%+ net effective rent premiums for flex, compared to conventional ready to fit. Derwent London’s management disclosed that every space they receive back under 10,000 square foot is appraised for their ‘Furnished & Flex’ product, a clear signal regarding the apparent permanent shift to flex for smaller spaces. Beyond London, Gecina is rolling out an ostensibly similar product in Paris CBD, although latest disclosures point to ERV premiums in the range of 20-30%, making for an interesting comparison to those achievable in London’s West End.  

Needless to say, there are many more insights for market participants to glean from just one round of public market results than could be squeezed into a very short article – not to mention sectors beyond Office. But the breadth and depth of near-real time disclosure available from the public market means that if you’re missing it, you’re missing out.  

The post European Office Market Trends – On ‘Public’ Display appeared first on Green Street.

To do so you need to have the right comparison points to project what the expected value of a property is and what the bid-ask spread might look like. This informs your decisions whether to purchase, to hold, or to sell – and when to do so. However, with all property sectors still seeing declines in 1Q24 and appraised values declining as well, there simply isn’t much price transparency due to a lack of purchases and sales of comparable properties for many market participants to reference.

Why Use Price Transparency Tools

This is where CRE price transparency tools like Green Street’s Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) become so integral to truly prepared real estate investors. Price transparency tools provide clarity as to how the market is currently valuing given properties. Green Street’s CPPI even goes one step further and specifically provides clarity as to what prices are today. This helps investors adjust their underwriting and valuations to more appropriately respond to current market trends. And the more informed your valuations, the more strategic you can be with your investment theses, etc.

There are several different metrics that are pulled into these projections and calculations. While we won’t dive into all of them here, you can get a glance of a few of the metrics that experts are keeping their eye on by accessing the definitions of all the below by logging into our Green Street Learning Center with client access.

CRE Metrics Used In Price Projections for Property Valuations:

1. Cap Rate
2. Operating Expenses Ratio
3. Gross Rent Multiplier
4. Occupancy Rate & Vacancy Rate
5. Net Operating Income (NOI)
6. Capital Expenditures (Cap Ex)

CRE price transparency tools can leverage customized formulas and live data pulled from a wide range of sources to give users a wider view of property pricing across the broader market on which they can rely. Price transparency tools like the list below are just a few you can leverage that are most widely trusted across the CRE industry.

Different Price Transparency Tools

1. Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI)®
   Green Street’s Commercial Property Price Index is a long-held time series that provides a snapshot of what value current CRE transactions are taking place. When based on the right data these CPPIs provide a vital context to the overall CRE market. The best CPPIs are distinguished by their timeliness, focus on high-value properties, and ability to capture changes in the aggregate value of any given sector.
2. Sales Comparisons (Comps)
   As the name implies, Sales Comparisons – or Sales Comps – allow real estate investors, brokers, and other market participants, to base their valuations on similar properties based on location, type, age, quality, and other metrics. Green Street Sales Comps even leverage a proprietary SmartComps algorithm to offer more accurate, comprehensive property data that is verified and enriched with market/sector analytics.
3. Automated Valuation Models (AVM)
   Automated Valuation Models create a custom model based on accepted and already recognized valuation approaches such as NOI Capitalization, Value Extrapolation, and Sales Comps to create a custom blended value of any given property. Green Street’s AVM is considered one of the most trusted and transparent AVM’s available today. AVM accuracy is substantiated by the back-testing results of the methodology white paper. For more details please request Green Street’s AVM white paper. This is not part of the UK regulated business.
4. Market Repots and Analytics
   Leveraging Market Reports from trusted sources allows you to rely on multiple data inputs while also getting experts’ views on specific sectors that you can then plug into your own models by using tool integrations like Snowflake or Green Street’s Excel Add-In
5. Public Market REIT Pricing Insights
   You can even use insights from the public market to leverage in private investments. Extrapolating on what specific REITs are currently valued at and using these valuations to gain perspective on what you can value private market properties can also give you a guide rail for how to underwrite your investments.

Takeaways

Regardless of the methodology you embrace, the likelihood a price transparency tool like Green Street’s CPPI or AVM will save you time and effort is highly likely. By leveraging the unbiased and market-tested models of CRE experts, you can stand on the shoulders of giants instead of trying to climb your way to the top from square one.  So, get ahead of the market by leveraging the best price transparency tools you can and don’t let the lack of data in today’s patterns stop you from acting on the patterns of tomorrow.

Click here to request a sample report and learn more about what insights Green Street has to offer. 

The post Seeing Through The Price Transparency Fog appeared first on Green Street.

If you want to learn more about this new offering you can keep reading or watch the video below to see our Head of Global Data Centers, David Guarino, speak about the product himself.

Projections call for a 10% per annum expansion in industry-wide inventory over the next five years. Responding to this promising future, we are offering new data to make more insightful decisions in your investments.

Green Street’s new Global Data Centers Outlook provides expanded coverage and market-level insights for the sector. Examples of some of the report insights include:

1. Overview and Sector 101 for Data Centers
2. Key Takeaways for Trending Insights
3. Nominal Cap Rate Time Series 
4. Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI)
5. Current Market IRRs and Build Ups
6. The Primary Supply Landscape for the Data Center Sector

Leveraging these differentiated insights, Green Street will help bring more color to the Data Center opportunity in the years ahead.

A few factors to consider on the surface: First, occupancy is already sitting at record high levels across the globe. This means that the need for new construction is necessary. Secondly, it’s important to note that data centers grow in a somewhat “network effect” model, in which the more infrastructure is built, the more fibers/network is built, the more data can be housed, and so the more data centers are needed. And so, the circle continues.

One can assume the promise this cycle can project, but for more insights you can request the report to dive into which markets are expected to show the strongest M-RevPAF growth (a Green Street proprietary metric combining rent and occupancy) in accordance with these projections. The gold rush of Data Centers does indeed seem to be built on a continuous circle of alchemy.

This is barely scratching the surface on the analysis from Green Street’s inaugural outlook report for the Data Center sector. With more research to come, it’s a matter of who will use this data to get ahead and stay ahead. With a gold rush already underway, and this seemingly self-rotating demand-supply cycle at its peak, who will strike first and who will find the golden vein? Green Street has the golden eye for quality data you don’t want to miss.

With a new booming industry considered “the real estate that supports the digital age,” the Data Center sector is certainly one to examine closely for certain investment strategies. As is the case with any investment decision, the more you are empowered with data the sturdier your actional insights will stand. And Green Street is waiting to maximize and optimize your data access, timely insights, and impactful commercial real estate news.

The post Diving Into The Golden Age of Data Centers With New Green Street Outlook appeared first on Green Street.

London, 21 March 2024 – The latest report by the Local Data Company (LDC) and Green Street, covering key developments across the entire Great Britain retail and leisure market over 2023, shows a spike in numbers of both closures and openings, representing significant churn. The overall data picture demonstrates the resilience and flexibility of GB retailers and leisure operators in the face of widespread economic difficulty, with clear opportunities emerging for businesses and landlords.

Rises in interest rates and operational costs compounded the challenges for GB retailers, leading to a year-on-year increase in closures of 14% between 2022 and 2023. However, closures were somewhat tempered by a 5% rise in openings during the same period, indicating a much more resilient and adaptable market than has been seen in previous years. Innovative changes of use and retail-to-residential conversions have become increasingly attractive, offering an economically viable option to address vacancies, align locations with current demand and revitalise town centres.

Retail parks were a particular area of strength, continuing the positive trajectory they have seen in recent years. With a net increase in units of 0.4% over 2023, they were the only location type to see a positive overall change. Demand remained high for retail park units, driving a 1.4% year-on-year decrease in vacancy rate. Further decreases are expected as retailers continue to expand their out-of-town offer, with investors in this space projected to see some rental growth.

While competition from out-of-town retail drove a 1.3% decrease in units for shopping centres, vacancy did improve by 0.5%, reflecting continued efforts to attract occupiers following the pandemic as well as convert long term vacant space into other uses. Analysis by Green Street reveals that strong, experience-led tenant mix is the key to thriving shopping centres; accordingly, for many retailers in this sector, the focus has been on creating immersive in-store experiences and prioritising highly-visible prime locations.

Barbers, nail salons and beauty salons were among the fastest-growing categories in 2023, reflecting sustained demand for personal grooming services. Convenience stores also continued to expand, with c-store formats ideally positioned to cater to cost of living-influenced shopping trends for more frequent trips and smaller basket sizes. Green Street predicts that community provision will continue to be a major theme in local retail strategy, with mixed-use development projects becoming easier to realise following changes to UK planning regulations.

Despite the economic headwinds seen over 2023, the latest data indicates a notable level of resilience across GB retail and leisure. While inflation and interest rates ease, making space for growth, uncertainty is still present in the form of anticipated economic and political change. Green Street and LDC anticipate that flexibility and careful strategy will enable agile retailers and developers to navigate any upcoming challenges and identify opportunities.

Read the full report for further details and analyses on 2023 Retail and Leisure Trends.

Methodology

The Local Data Company visits over 3,300 towns and cities (retail centres and government-defined retail core), retail parks and shopping centres across England, Scotland and Wales.

Towns are updated on a 6- to 12-month cycle depending on size and churn, with both a field survey and office research team tracking changes in the local market.

Each centre has been physically walked and each premises recorded as vacant, occupied or demolished as recorded on the day of survey. Vacant units are units that did not have a trading business at that premise on the day of survey.

‘Retail’ refers to convenience retail, comparison goods retail and service retail, while ‘leisure’ refers to leisure destinations, namely entertainment venues, restaurants, bars, pubs & clubs, coffee shops and fast food outlets.

The GB vacancy rate analyses the top 650 town centres across England, Wales and Scotland.

About Green Street

Green Street is the preeminent provider of actionable commercial real estate research, news, data, analytics, and advisory services in the U.S. Canada and Europe. For nearly 40 years, Green Street has delivered unparalleled intelligence and trusted data on the public and private real estate markets, helping investors, banks, lenders, and other industry participants optimize investment and strategic decisions. The firm delivers exclusive market information, conclusion-driven insights, and predictive analytics through a SaaS platform. To learn more, please visit www.greenstreet.com.

Media Contact info:

Green Street

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London, 30 January 2024 – Green Street, the preeminent provider of actionable commercial real estate intelligence and analytics, has released its 2024 Pan-European Sector Outlooks, a bundle of in-depth research reports covering commercial real estate. The Outlook reports provide a 360-degree view of the four core property sectors and can be utilized in conjunction with our Market Forecasts tool, which provides five-year forecasts for operating fundamentals and valuation metrics across various scenarios for the top 30 Pan-European markets.

The 2024 Pan-European Industrial, Office, Residential and Retail Sector Outlooks include supply/demand analysis, growth forecasts, valuation metrics, and NUTS3 and Market Grades representing long-term growth potential.

“Industrial and retail remain Green Street’s preferred sectors from a long-term hold perspective. Strength of the demand has been fueling industrial rental growth, whilst high incoming yield in retail bolster returns,” explains Marie Dormeuil, Head of European Market Analytics. “On the other hand, office remains a laggard for the fourth consecutive year. The observed yield expansion is not enough to offset the drag in fundamentals entailed by the bifurcation in tenants’ demand in favour of prime offices.”

Below are key takeaways from each sector:

• Industrial: Opportunities Plentiful

M-RevPAM growth – a Green Street proprietary metric that combines effective market rent and occupancy – is forecast to exhibit a more level-playing field than history has played out, and whilst there is a wide dispersion between key European cities, growth is positive across the board. There are signals that values have bottomed and yields are showing tentative signs of tightening. Institutional investors who have been hopeful for a lower price point and/or sought greater assurance on the operating backdrop now have their potential opportunity.

• Retail: Firmer Footings

Europe’s downbeat consumer has kept spending despite the uncertain outlook. The pressure on consumer discretionary spend which has been well documented in news headlines has not (yet) necessarily translated into weakening tenant sales. Retailer occupational fundamentals are surprisingly sturdy and, moreover, given the value destruction experienced in the pandemic, several green shoots are emerging in terms of rental growth.

• Office: Crystal Ball Glazing

Key risks to the office sector include a softer macro-outlook (redundancies) and improved productivity due to remote working. The bifurcation in favour of ‘A’ space that began to assert itself post-pandemic accelerated in ’23, eroding further fundamentals for ‘B’-quality. Flight to quality by tenants should accelerate operational obsolescence of some of Europe’s more secondary office stock, leading to demolition or conversion to other uses. Developers are likely to find better risk-adjusted (i.e., lower environmental impact, lower development risk) returns on offer by pursuing major refurbishment and/or redevelopment works relative to ground-up new construction projects.

• Residential: More Cheery Than Gloomy

The positive long-term structural trends of solid demand (household formation and immigration) and lack of supply outweigh the headwinds facing the European residential sector. Meanwhile, the outlook for new residential construction is muted as the rise in interest rates has derailed development economics. Pan-European residential asset prices are down ~24% from mid-’22 peak and a bottom might be forming; signals from the fixed income and public equity markets are pointing to moderate upside to private market valuations for the first time after 18 months. Governments’ appetite for rent controls and stretched affordability are near-term risks to watch out for.

About Green Street

Green Street is the preeminent provider of actionable commercial real estate research, news, data, analytics, and advisory services in the U.S. Canada and Europe. For nearly 40 years, Green Street has delivered unparalleled intelligence and trusted data on the public and private real estate markets, helping investors, banks, lenders, and other industry participants optimize investment and strategic decisions. The firm delivers exclusive market information, conclusion-driven insights, and predictive analytics through a SaaS platform. To learn more, please visit www.greenstreet.com.

Media Contact info:
Green Street
media@greenstreet.com

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